Caught in the Crossfire: How Trump's Tariffs Are Squeezing Farmers from Both Sides
American farmers are finding themselves caught in an impossible squeeze. "We're already at the point that we're unprofitable," said Brad Ragland, a soybean farmer. "Why on earth are we trying to add insult to injury for the ag sector by basically adding a tax?" The new tariffs aren't just hurting farmers' ability to sell their crops—they're also driving up the cost of everything farmers need to grow them.
If you're a farmer watching your margins disappear from both ends, you're not alone. The numbers are stark, and the pressure is building. But there might be a path forward that doesn't depend on trade wars or commodity prices.
The Double Hit: Higher Costs, Lower Revenues
Farmers are facing what economists call a "double hit" from the current tariff situation. More than 20% of U.S. farm income comes from exports, which are dominated by these three markets. Just last year, the U.S. exported over $30 billion in agricultural products to Mexico, $29 billion to Canada, and $26 billion to China – our top three markets and nearly half of all exports by value combined.
On the Cost Side: The biggest immediate impact is on fertilizer costs. More than 80% of imports come from Canada, the largest direct impact would be expected for potassium fertilizers. According to the Illinois Production Cost Report, potash prices are currently around $450 per ton. Full pass-through of the 25% tariff could increase prices by more than $100 per ton for supplies sourced from Canada.
Even with the reduced 10% tariff rate Trump granted after farmer pressure, "The reduced 10-per-cent tariff is welcome, but will still lead to higher fall potash prices," said Veronica Nigh, senior economist at the Fertilizer Institute.
On the Revenue Side: China retaliated with levies of its own, which mainly target U.S. agricultural goods. Specifically, U.S. soybeans are now subject to an additional 10% tariff, while corn gets hit with an extra 15% charge.
The math is brutal. Between mid-February and early March, there was a 33% per-acre drop in net return for soybeans and corn related to the tariffs. That's on top of the fact that 2025 was "not ending up to be an extremely profitable year before this."
The Long-Term Damage Goes Beyond Numbers
What's particularly troubling is that tariffs don't just affect immediate profits—they damage long-term relationships that take years to rebuild. "Tariffs break trust," Ragland said. "It's a lot harder to find new customers than it is to retain ones that you already have."
During Trump's first term, U.S. soybean exports to China experienced a significant decline during the height of trade tensions. From mid-2018 to the end of 2019, retaliatory tariffs imposed by six major trading partners—Canada, China, Turkey, Mexico, the EU, and India—resulted in estimated losses of over $27 billion in U.S. agricultural exports. Soybeans alone accounted for more than 70 percent of those losses.
The damage was lasting. China, along with other trading partners, began shifting to more reliable suppliers, like Brazil and Argentina. Those market relationships still haven't fully recovered.
Why "Bailouts" Aren't the Solution
The Trump administration has announced plans for another round of farmer bailouts, similar to the more than $32 billion in bailouts for farmers during the first Trump term. Agriculture Secretary Brooke Rollins has already announced a new $10 billion round of taxpayer-funded farm bailouts.
But bailouts create their own problems. DeHaven's analysis highlights a paradox. While Trump's trade wars have hurt farmers financially, the Trump administration sought to "buy off" the agricultural sector with billions in subsidies. "Rather than stabilize agricultural production, [Trump's] tariff-driven bailouts deepened dependency and inefficiency."
More importantly, bailouts are temporary and unpredictable. They don't provide the long-term income stability that farmers need to plan for the future.
The Search for Stable Income
A leading agriculture exports group said "massive" financial losses are already racking up at farms, with cancelled orders resulting in layoffs, as China stops buying products from pork to lumber. "No one can replace all the volume that China buys," one farm operator reported.
When export markets disappear and input costs soar, farmers need alternative income sources that aren't subject to the same trade and political pressures. Solar land leasing offers exactly that kind of stability.
Why Solar Income is Different:
Not Subject to Tariffs: Solar lease payments aren't affected by trade wars or export restrictions
Predictable: Fixed payments that don't fluctuate with commodity prices or political tensions
Long-term: 25-30-year contracts provide income stability regardless of changing trade policies
Domestic Market: Solar electricity is sold domestically, avoiding export market volatility
Real Numbers in the Current Environment
Let's look at how tariffs are affecting actual farm economics:
Soybean Farming in 2025:
Price impact from tariffs: -33% net return per acre
Higher fertilizer costs: +$100+ per ton for potash
Export market uncertainty: Ongoing
Net result: Many farmers are operating at losses
What Farmers Are Saying
Despite these headwinds, however, Roberts steadfastly supports the tariffs. "In the long run, it's going to be the best thing that ever happened," he said, predicting that the levies will pressure trade partners like China to negotiate new purchasing agreements with the U.S.
But not all farmers are willing to wait for the "long run." Maples worries that pain could prove too great for some local producers, especially those who are new to the industry and lack the capital to withstand an extended tariff onslaught. The trade dispute could fast-track retirement plans for some older farmers in the state.
The Path Forward
The tariff situation highlights a fundamental problem with modern agriculture: too much dependence on volatile export markets and imported inputs. While trade policies will continue to change with different administrations, the need for stable, predictable income won't.
Solar leasing offers farmers a way to create income stability that isn't subject to the political winds of trade policy. It's not about abandoning farming—it's about creating a financial foundation that allows you to weather trade wars, policy changes, and market volatility.
Your Options in Uncertain Times
At Fellowship Solar Energy, we understand that 2025 has brought unprecedented challenges for farmers. Between tariffs, input cost increases, and export market uncertainty, many farmers are looking for ways to stabilize their operations.
We can't control trade policy or commodity prices, but we can offer something that's increasingly rare in agriculture: predictable income that doesn't depend on Washington politics or international trade relationships.
If you're tired of watching your margins get squeezed from both sides, it might be time to explore solar leasing. The process is straightforward, the income is reliable, and it provides a hedge against the kind of policy uncertainty that's making farming so difficult right now.
Contact us when you're ready to explore your options. We're here to provide information and realistic assessments, not sales pressure. In times like these, having choices is what matters most.